AFL 2026 Season Preview: Lions Chase Three-Peat as Top 10 Finals Era Begins

What Happened: A New AFL Era Kicks Off

The 2026 Toyota AFL Premiership Season represents one of the most significant structural shifts in modern footy. This is the 130th season of the Australian Football League, featuring 18 clubs and running from 5 March to 26 September. It comprises a 23-match home-and-away season over 25 rounds, with a five-week finals series featuring the top ten clubs occurring for the first time.

In October 2025, the AFL announced two major changes for 2026: the substitute rule was removed in favour of a five-player interchange, and the ball would no longer be bounced in the centre of the ground by a field umpire at the start of quarters and after goals — replaced instead by a ball-up. The removal of the centre bounce ended a tradition dating back to 1887.

For Aussie fans, the season carries a storyline rarely seen in the modern era: the Brisbane Lions are chasing a third straight premiership. Respected analysts suggest this version of the Lions may be an even more likely prospect to achieve a flag hat-trick than their famous ancestors of 2001–03 or Hawthorn in 2013–15.

Key Dates and Fixture Details

The 2026 season officially begins at the SCG on Thursday 5 March when the Sydney Swans take on Carlton, before heading north to People First Stadium the next day where the Gold Coast Suns play Geelong on Friday 6 March. The GWS Giants host Hawthorn on Saturday 7 March at ENGIE Stadium and the reigning premiers Brisbane unfurl their flag against the Western Bulldogs at the Gabba on Saturday night.

For the first time, Opening Round features a match in Victoria when St Kilda host Collingwood at the MCG on Sunday night ahead of the state's Monday Labour Day public holiday.

• Opening Round: 5–8 March 2026
• Round 1 traditional opener: Carlton vs Richmond at the MCG, Thursday 12 March
• Bye rounds: Rounds 12 to 16, featuring at least seven games each weekend
• Home-and-away conclusion: 26 September 2026

Opening Round through to Round 15 have been fully fixtured, while Rounds 16 to 24 remain floating with match-ups and venues confirmed but dates and times yet to be locked in.

Games will also return to Canberra, Bunbury, Alice Springs, Hobart and Launceston as the AFL continues to take matches to as many places and fans as possible.

Premiership Race: Can Brisbane Make It Three Straight?

The Brisbane Lions are the early favourites to pick up a third consecutive premiership in 2026, having added Sam Draper and Oscar Allen to their list. Sydney Swans, Hawthorn Hawks and the Gold Coast Suns round out the top four in odds rankings.

The Lions' 2025 victory was their fifth flag overall, making them the most successful non-Victorian AFL club in history and the most successful of the 21st century. The win also saw them become the joint-most successful club of the AFL era alongside Hawthorn.

Their stockpile of talent includes Neale, McCluggage, Andrews, Dunkley, both Ashcrofts, Zorko, Bailey and Rayner, with the additions of ruckman Sam Draper and star key forward Oscar Allen bolstering depth in critical positions.

Brisbane great Simon Black is bullish on the dynasty. "That Grand Final side from last year, there were eight players that are 22 and under, which is quite phenomenal. Those guys will only get better. They talk about the 23–28-year-old players in their prime — there's a bunch of those types," Black told SEN.

Garry Lyon has also backed Brisbane to win back-to-back-to-back flags, a feat only six teams have achieved in V/AFL history.

Rule Changes and the New Wildcard Finals

The biggest structural shake-up is at finals time. The AFL introduced a wildcard finals round, adding an extra week to the existing finals series and increasing the number of finalists from eight to ten. At the end of the home-and-away season, the seventh-placed team hosts the tenth-placed team and eighth hosts ninth in wildcard finals. The winners then progress to the traditional final eight system.

The change is the first adjustment to the AFL finals system since 2000. The AFL Fans Association received the shift negatively; however, sports rights analyst Colin Smith explained that the league was protecting the value of its current $4.5 billion broadcast rights deal by implementing the new system, with more finalists meaning fewer dead rubber matches later in the home-and-away season.

On-field, the centre bounce is gone. AFL executive general manager of football performance Greg Swann explained that the skill of bouncing the ball was hindering the development of umpires.

Other notable changes include rules governing Brownlow Medal voting, which now provide umpires with a set of player statistics prior to lodging votes. A State of Origin match also took place for the first time since 1999, with Western Australia playing Victoria at Optus Stadium in February 2026. Victoria won the match by 24 points.

Contenders and Pretenders: Form Lines for 2026

Beyond Brisbane, several clubs enter 2026 with genuine September aspirations. Brisbane and Geelong feel structurally safe, with their systems travelling, lists balanced and September records holding up. Sydney and Hawthorn look ready to surge again, while Fremantle believe their window is open.

A surging Gold Coast has jumped into premiership calculations following their first finals appearance and subsequent win. Their 2025 campaign ended at the hands of eventual premiers Brisbane in the semi-final, but they have bolstered their list with the inclusion of Christian Petracca and Jamarra Ugle-Hagan, as well as an incoming litany of top-end Academy prospects.

Adelaide also present an intriguing case. The Crows were top three for both attack and defence last season, number one for applied pressure and number one for territory, ranking top four in no fewer than 22 of 32 statistical categories measured by Champion Data. They sit in a demographic sweet spot, mid-table for age and experience.

The middle tier is brutally tight. Port Adelaide, St Kilda, Adelaide and Carlton all believe they should be in the mix, and a two-game swing could separate sixth from eleventh — meaning the wildcard round could be a genuine lottery.

Team News, Recruits and Pre-Season Injury Concerns

The off-season reshaped multiple lists. Brisbane added star ruckman Sam Draper and key forward Oscar Allen, while Gold Coast landed the biggest names of the trade period with Christian Petracca and Jamarra Ugle-Hagan.

However, several clubs are already nursing serious injury concerns heading into the season:

• GWS Giants: Tom Green and Josh Kelly are gone for the year, while Sam Taylor, Finn Callaghan, Toby Bedford, Leek Aleer, Darcy Jones and Brent Daniels are all facing delayed starts.
• Hawthorn: The Hawks failed to land Zach Merrett, James Worpel was let go, and Will Day's long-term injury looms as a significant setback for the club's season aspirations.
• Brisbane: Eric Hipwood will miss a decent chunk of the first half of the season as he recovers from knee surgery, paving the way for Ty Gallop to have an extended run in the forward line. Jack Payne is returning from a knee injury and Noah Answerth is returning from a ruptured Achilles.
• Carlton: Jagga Smith should make his debut in the opening weeks after last season's injury woes, while Campbell Chesser will also be in coach Michael Voss' plans after his trade from West Coast.

What the Experts Are Tipping

AFL.com.au's expert panel has weighed in across premiership, Brownlow and Rising Star markets. Brisbane is again the overwhelming favourite to win another premiership, while West Coast is the clear favourite to finish bottom of the ladder. At an individual level, Nick Daicos, Jagga Smith and Charlie Curnow are the popular choices to win the major awards, with plenty of eyes on St Kilda heading into a massive season.

Panel voting summary:

• Brownlow Medal: Nick Daicos (4 votes), Chad Warner (1), Marcus Bontempelli (1), Noah Anderson (1), Errol Gulden (1), Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera (1)
• Coleman Medal: Charlie Curnow (3), Sam Darcy (2), Mitch Georgiades (2), Riley Thilthorpe (1), Ben King (1)
• Rising Star: Jagga Smith (7), Daniel Annable (1), Zeke Uwland (1)
• Recruit of the Year: Charlie Curnow (3), Christian Petracca (3), Will Hayward (2), Brody Mihocek (1)

Editor's note: Tips and pundit calls are speculative. Any betting markets cited are reported for context only, not as recommendations.

What Comes Next and Final Take

The early weeks of 2026 will tell us plenty. The Lions' flag unfurling against the Western Bulldogs, Sydney's Opening Round opener against Carlton, and the new MCG Sunday-night Saints–Magpies clash will set the tone.

Other dates to circle:

• The Brisbane Lions host Collingwood at the Gabba on Thursday night to kick off Easter weekend, ahead of the SuperClash match between North Melbourne and Carlton on Good Friday, with Hawthorn and Geelong closing out the round on Easter Monday afternoon at the MCG.
• King's Birthday falls in Round Thirteen and will see the first QClash of the season when Gold Coast host Brisbane on Saturday on Queensland Day, with a double-header on the eve of the public holiday featuring Sydney v St Kilda at the SCG and Essendon v Carlton at the MCG, before the traditional Big Freeze game between Collingwood and Melbourne at the MCG on Monday.

For Aussie fans, 2026 shapes as a defining season: a potential Brisbane dynasty, a brand new finals format, the end of the centre bounce, and a tight middle of the ladder where one bad month could decide who plays in September. Keep an eye on the AFL injury list each week — particularly at GWS, Hawthorn and the Western Bulldogs — as the wildcard race tightens.

Verified sources: AFL.com.au, ESPN Australia, SEN, Wikipedia (2026 AFL season), Zero Hanger. Any details not confirmed by these official or reputable outlets have been flagged or omitted.